We are down to 1 series left, the Western Conference Championship. With Stratford winning the Cherrey Cup last night, the seeding for the Sutherland Cup, as well as the Wildcard, can now be determined.
Prior to the Conference finals starting, this is where the teams were.
| Team | GP | W | L | WPCT | GF | GA | GD |
| Leamington | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0.800 | 61 | 23 | 0.726 |
| London | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0.727 | 43 | 34 | 0.558 |
| Team | GP | W | L | WPCT | GF | GA | GD |
| Stratford | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0.800 | 63 | 21 | 0.750 |
| Waterloo | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0.889 | 30 | 20 | 0.600 |
| Team | GP | W | L | WPCT | GF | GA | GD |
| Caledonia | 8 | 8 | 0 | 1.000 | 78 | 9 | 0.897 |
| St. Catharines | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0.727 | 39 | 25 | 0.609 |
The seeding for the Sutherland Cup, and to determine the Wildcard, are based on their play-off winning percentages. The winning percentage is a very basic calculation, it’s wins divided by total games played (W/GP). If there’s a tie, it goes to goal differential, which I’ve also been tracking. Goal differential is total goals for divided by goals for plus goals against [GF/(GF+GA)], that’s the official formula used by the OHA.
In prior years, Pointstreak was wrong in calculating the play-off standings, and was giving a 1/2 win for OT, but in play-offs, a loss is a loss. They’ve finally gotten it together, but I still track it on my own in a spreadsheet for the purpose of calculating different scenarios.
After last night’s Game 5 between Stratford and Waterloo, this is where the teams sit.
| As at Apr 9 | |||||||
| Team | GP | W | L | WPCT | GF | GA | GD |
| Leamington | 15 | 10 | 5 | 0.667 | 73 | 36 | 0.670 |
| London | 16 | 11 | 5 | 0.688 | 56 | 46 | 0.549 |
| London leads 3-2 | |||||||
| Team | GP | W | L | WPCT | GF | GA | GD |
| Stratford | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0.800 | 94 | 35 | 0.729 |
| Waterloo | 14 | 9 | 5 | 0.643 | 44 | 51 | 0.463 |
| Stratford wins 4-1 | |||||||
| Team | GP | W | L | WPCT | GF | GA | GD |
| Caledonia | 12 | 12 | 0 | 1.000 | 99 | 19 | 0.839 |
| St. Catharines | 15 | 8 | 7 | 0.533 | 49 | 46 | 0.516 |
| Caledonia wins 4-0 | |||||||
As you can see, St. Catharines has been eliminated from the Wildcard as the other 3 teams already have better percentages.
As Caledonia has gone a perfect 12-0 in the play-offs, they will be No. 1. As Stratford only lost 3 games in the play-offs, and already have a better record than London and Leamington, they are No. 2. The winner from the West will be No. 3 and the Wildcard will be No. 4.
The Wildcard is the Conference Finalist with the best winning percentage.
Tonight is Game 6 between London and Leamington. If London wins, and finishes the series, Waterloo will be the Wilcard.
| Team | GP | W | L | WPCT |
| Leamington | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0.625 |
| London | 17 | 12 | 5 | 0.706 |
If Leamington wins the game, they force a Game 7 on Sunday.
The below scenarios are if Leamington wins Game 7 and if London wins Game 7.
| Team | GP | W | L | WPCT |
| Leamington | 17 | 12 | 5 | 0.706 |
| London | 18 | 11 | 7 | 0.611 |
| Team | GP | W | L | WPCT |
| Leamington | 17 | 11 | 6 | 0.647 |
| London | 18 | 12 | 6 | 0.667 |
If Leamington wins, Waterloo is in. If London wins, Leamington is in.
The Sutherland Cup semi-final is either going to be a repeat from 2013-14, where Caledonia played Waterloo, or a repeat of 2014-15, where Caledonia played Leamington.
I will be at the Western Fair tonight to watch this game and see how this all unfolds.
